There’s no such thing as a mesocosm

I don’t know about those experiments.  They were all done in mesocosms…or as I call them, “bags.”

–Anonymous limnologist

Last week, the eminent population ecologist Charley Krebs, channeling the sentiment expressed in the quote above, wrote a blog post on something he dubbed the “Volkswagen syndrome” in ecology.  He points out that ecologists are bad at prediction, and wonders if our shortcomings in this department may be due in part to over-reliance on simplified models, labratory microcosms, and field mesocosm studies.  The name alludes to VW’s recent attempts to, er, “simplify” the results of their cars’ emissions tests.  Krebs wonders if we should declare a partial moratorium on microcosm studies until some kind of meta-analysis can show whether, or under what conditions, they are worthwhile.

This post drew a strong reaction from Jeremy Fox at Dynamic Ecology.  Fox does much of his work with protists in microcosms, and so I think he (understandably) felt a bit defensive about what may have sounded like an attack on his whole research program.  Fox argues that there are examples of micro/mesocosm work that have generalized to nature, and links to an older post defending micro/mesocosms against a list of common criticisms (which I get the sense he hears a lot).  Morgan Ernest at Jabberwocky Ecology also had this less-strong response to Krebs’s post.

This is all interesting, but at this point, I’m getting a sinking feeling. This debate is drifting into familiar territory for ecology. Continue reading

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Research in the National Interest

James Clerk Maxwell

Young James Clerk Maxwell (Wikimedia Commons)

The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology approved legislation today that would require the National Science Foundation to explain, for every research grant it awards, how that grant is “in the national interest.” This is a new chapter in a long-running serial.

Things that are “in the national interest,” according to H.R. 3293, have “the potential to increase economic competitiveness, advance health and welfare, develop a competitive STEM workforce, increase public scientific literacy, increase partnerships between academia and industry, support national defense or promote scientific progress.” A lot of research could be said to contribute to these goals. Notably absent from the list are anything to do with the environment, climate, conservation, or natural resources. Even more notably absent is the pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.

As a practicing scientist, I’ve obviously already bought into the whole value-of-learning-and-exploration thing. But even if you’re more into economic competetiveness, partnerships with industry, and national defense, you had better respect the importance of fundamental research. Continue reading

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The Northern Cod are Coming Back The Atlantic cod offshore of Newfoundland are at this point the stuff of legend and fable. For five hundred years, they supported one of the largest fisheries in the world, until, in the latter half of the twentieth century, a tangle of new technology, greed, and mismanagement caused the population to crash. In 1992, with enraged fishermen trying to batter down the door, Canada’s Minister of Fisheries declared a moratorium. The fishery was closed.

The closure was expected to last a couple of years, maybe a few, giving the cod population time to rebound. But the rebound didn’t come. For twenty years, cod remained scarce, virtually extinct in ecological terms. Continue reading

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Viewers who watched “The Birds” also enjoyed “Field Work on Great Gull Island”

My second summer on Great Gull Island is over, and I’m back on the “Big Island” for good now. I miss being there. Mostly.

Great Gull Island is small, and during the summer it is crowded. Some ten thousand pairs of terns nest on just 17 acres of land. They lay small, brown, speckled eggs on the ground, in nests that are little more than a shallow scrape ringed with some twigs or grasses. You have to walk slowly, watching the ground in front of literally every footstep, to avoid stepping on the nests.

The terns do not really care if you are being careful. They attack you. These attacks involve dive-bombing, lots of noise, projectile defecation, and occasional beak strikes that are sharp enough to draw blood. It’s like The Birds, but with better special effects. But, as LeVar Burton says, don’t take my word for it. I have video.

In the words of one friend after watching this, “Holy shit! You said there were a lot of birds, but I didn’t realize it was like National Geographic out there!”

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Programming: the Legos of Math

Lego Mobius Strips

Lego® Mobius strips by Andrew Lipson. Click to see more mathematical Lego art on his webpage.

Why should you learn to program? In my (limited) experience in the world of marine science, fisheries, and ecology, programming is more and more becoming part of the expected tool set. Consequently, many grad students in these fields are struggling up the learning curve.

There are a lot of good reasons to learn to program. Many are mentioned in this recent Twitter conversation, prompted by a question from Dan McGlinn: how to justify teaching biology undergraduates R or Python instead of Excel? Most of the responses to this question focused on the ways R (or Python) is a faster and more powerful tool than Excel. Which is absolutely true: programming tools are far more flexible, powerful, and reproducible than spreadsheets. It has been seven years since I first learned to program, and it has been seven years since I last tried to use Excel for any data analysis. But with some perspective on it now, I think the best thing programming has done for me is the confidence it has given me to play with mathematics.

In school I was pretty good at math, but it was never totally easy for me (my anxiety dreams, to this day, are all about being unprepared for 11th grade pre-calc). This began to change, imperceptibly at first, Continue reading

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Do not flip-flop variables to make them work in your #@%*^& ANOVA

I was reading a paper this morning. It included a perversion of a common statistical analysis that is fundamentally wrong, utterly unneccesary, and has an easy solution. This perversion, unfortunately, is also distressingly common. Inspired by O’Hara and Kotze’s 2010 paper Do Not Log-Transform Count Data, I now offer you this blog post/rant, entitled “Do not flip-flop variables to make them work in your #@%*^& ANOVA.”

What set me off was a statement about the presence or absence of a particular fish in alpine lakes (details have been blurred to protect the guilty):

Lakes containing [fish] were lower in elevation…than lakes without [fish].

This statement was followed by the results of a non-parametric ANOVA confirming that lakes with fish were at significantly lower elevations than lakes without them. Can you spot the problem here? This model implies–wait for it–that you can flatten mountain ranges by adding fish to their lakes. Who knew?

Continue reading

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Hvalreki really should have been the title of my last post. It is my favorite Icelandic word, which I learned visiting that country almost five years ago. It translates to “windfall” in English, and, like that word, originally referred to a concrete event. But where a windfall is some fruit blown from the high branches, a hvalreki is much grander. It literally means “beached whale.”

Back in the old days in Iceland, a hvalreki really was a huge stroke of good luck. (“Olav, come quick! It’s a hvalreki! We can eat this winter!”) For some marine mammal acousticians, it still is. (“Ted! Come quick! It’s a hvalreki! We can ship its head to Utah to CT scan it for a finite-element model!”) But most of the time, these days, a hvalreki is more trouble than it is worth.

That was the opinion of the town of Brookhaven, New York, this past October, when a nearly 60-foot long fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) washed up at Smith Point County Park on the south shore of Long Island. Continue reading

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Bone Conduction is Better than Pressure, or, Put your Whale in my Rocket Scanner What do a decapitated whale, an x-ray scanner for solid-fuel rockets, and noise pollution have in common? This is not the start of a really weird joke–they are all major elements in a new paper by Ted Cranford and Petr Krysil, published this week in PLOS One. In a word, the first went through the second to help understand the impact of the third.

This was, believe it or not, a very logical plan for a research project. The modern ocean is increasingly filled with man-made noise, and some of them may be affecting marine mammals. Blue whales, for instance, have lowered the pitch of their songs over the past few decades, possibly in reaction to the rising volume of ship noise in the ocean. However, we don’t actually know how well many of the largest whales hear, because there is no way to measure it.

Continue reading

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No, New York, the forecast didn’t fail

Cliff Mass of the University of Washington has a good breakdown of the “failure” of meteorologists to correctly predict snowfall during this week’s storm. “Failure” gets the scare-quote treatment because the forecast wasn’t actually far off: models showed most of the snow falling in a relatively narrow band on the west side of the storm system, which is exactly what happened. The placement of that snow band, however, was uncertain–depending on which of the several major weather models you looked at, it fell somewhere between New Jersey and Cape Cod. Small differences in the storm’s track would mean large differences in snow over NYC.

That uncertainty was understood and acknowledged by NOAA and the National Weather Service. This graph hoisted from Mass’s blog post shows snow accumulation from Monday through Thursday, as predicted by a group of models (one line per forecast). Each model was started with slightly different initial conditions, or subtly different representations for how the atmosphere works. This is what atmospheric scientists cal an ensemble, and it gives a sense of the uncertainty in NYC’s forecast: the forecast accumulation varied from about 6 inches at the low end to almost 40 inches at the top.

New York snow forecasts

Predicted snow accumulation (in inches) in New York City from different models

For a variety of reasons, the reported forecasts skewed high. The NWS doesn’t do the best job it could communicating the uncertainty. TV news, all else equal, would rather have you freaked out and glued to your screen watching their parka-clad weatherman, and they report the forecast accordingly. I suspect a lot of it is just due to the fact that we aren’t that good at dealing with uncertainty.

And, of course, a lot of that “failure” can be traced to a certain attitude that mistakes a certain eight-mile island for the majority of the civilized universe. Out here in Suffolk County, the forecast was more or less right on, and we got hammered. The highest snowfalls in the state were at Orient Point, the tip of Long Island’s North Fork. There were no humans there to measure, but I suspect they were probably even higher at Great Gull Island.

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The Best Norwegian Horror Comedy that is Actually About Wildlife Biology You Will See This Year

Troll Hunter

The movie is called Troll Hunter.

I’d seen this movie a few years ago, but re-watched it this weekend and remembered how much I like it. It’s a found-footage Scenario. Thomas, Johanna, and Kalle are three Norwegian college students attempting to film a documentary about a man they think is a bear poacher. When they follow him into the woods, however, they discover that he is after much bigger game. Trolls.

Hans, the troll hunter, is not any kind of mythic hero. He is a long-time employee of the Norwegian Wildlife Board, working in a secret office called the TSS (Troll Security Service). When trolls break out of their territories and come too close to livestock or people, he has to trap or kill them. The usual weapons are powerful ultraviolet flash bulbs (trolls, of course, turn to stone in daylight). Hans is sick of it. The hours are terrible, the work is dangerous, and he doesn’t even get overtime.

Troll Hunter is alternately beautiful, scary, and bone-dry hilarious. Many of the jokes will be especially appreciated by anyone familiar with wildlife or fisheries management. Hans, and a sympathetic veterinarian named Hilde, explain troll biology and ecology with impossibly straight faces. Like many other large predators, trolls have a long lifespan and very low fecundity. Like many people who study large predators, Hans and Hilde argue passionately that the creatures are misunderstood. Human activity, and possibly climate change, are causing unpredictable changes in troll behavior. Conflicting demands by the public and different government offices make rational troll management nearly impossible.

Troll Hunter is on Netflix. I highly recommend it.

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